Communicating Uncertainty — Ebola, Public Health, and the Scientific Process

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been widely criticized for projecting overconfidence in U.S. hospitals' capacity to manage Ebola. When two nurses at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas became infected, critics cited the CDC's assurance that “U.S. hospitals can safely manage patients with Ebola disease.” When the CDC said the nurses probably became infected because of a protocol breach and it turned out there was no protocol, things got worse...

The challenge, when officials facing uncertainty seek to prevent panic, is that the perception of inadequate understanding by experts is one of several factors known to heighten fear. How can we communicate uncertainty without igniting fear and undermining public trust in health authorities? 

This short article reviews this topic and lessons learned.